Why does it say “Unlikely” when Kp is high?
The Tonight verdict is for your place, so darkness, cloud and the Moon count as much as Kp.
Kp measures how active the aurora is around the whole planet. The Tonight card answers a narrower question: will you see it, where you are, in the next few hours? It combines four things:
- Activity at your latitude. Each place needs a certain Kp before the aurora reaches it. A place at 55° magnetic latitude needs about Kp 4, and one further from the pole needs more.
- Darkness. The aurora can't be seen in daylight or bright twilight.
- Cloud. Thick cloud hides it, however strong it is.
- The Moon. A bright Moon washes out fainter displays.
The line under the verdict names the main reason, such as Activity too low, Too light, Cloudy or Bright Moon. Check the Next 12 hours bars on the same card: a better hour later in the night is often shown there.